It’s not too early to eyeball how things will look for next season in the Premier League given the almost ridiculous situation in the bottom half of the table.
That’s true in the Championship as well, but let’s leave promotion for another day as longtime PL mainstays continue to jockey for a place back in the top flight (Southampton, Leeds, Leicester, wow!).
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Burnley and Sheffield United are in a bad, bad place, while four others are in trouble points-wise but have had mixed performances.
Everton’s 10-point deduction has put a borderline good team — 10 more more points would have them 12th — and Forest’s defense and Brentford’s attack have been defied by their records.
So what matches are left for the seven team currently closest to the Championship, and how worried should each be? Read on…
Deep, deep, deep trouble
Sheffield United (20th place, 13 points, 13 matches left)
This season has been harder to take than a Vinicius Souza tackle — the young Brazilian has been quite good. The Blades lead the Premier League in xG conceded by more than four goals and have given up 60 goals despite getting a league-best 4.3 saves per game. Turns out not keeping the two most influential players from a promotion push is pretty harmful.
Remaining fixtures Wolves (A), Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A), Man Utd (A), Fulham (H), Liverpool (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A), Burnley (H), Newcastle (A), Forest (H), Everton (A), Tottenham (H)
Burnley (19th place, 13 points, 13 matches left)
While Burnley are not as bad as their defensive record indicates, the goals just aren’t there. Even if they catch fire, there just may not be enough winnable fixtures left on the list to overcome not one but two teams on the table.
Remaining fixtures: Palace (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A), Brentford (H), Chelsea (A), Wolves (H), Everton (A), Brighton (H), Sheffield United (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H), Tottenham (A), Forest (H)
Long road ahead
Everton (18th place, 19 points, 14 matches left)
Remember the 10-point deduction here, because Everton are certainly not a relegation team on merit: only Arsenal have kept more clean sheets than Sean Dyche’s Toffees (8). Everton is also second in tackles and second in interceptions per match. Everton are actually good, and their fixtures really should boost them to safety…. maybe even over the next three weeks.
Remaining fixtures: Palace (H), Brighton (A), West Ham (H), Man Utd (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (A), Burnley (H), Chelsea (A), Forest (H), Brentford (H), Luton (A), Sheffield United (H), Arsenal (A)
Luton Town (17th place, 20 points, 14 matches left)
Rob Edwards’ Hatters fight, and they fight hard. You could say it’s difficult to be a Hatters’ hater. There are some points left on the board, for sure, but remember that the numbers say Luton need more than things appear given Everton’s plight being more about a points punishment than performance. Will Palace, Brentford, or Forest present Luton a chance to pass them? All three are on the docket, and two come to Kenilworth Road. If the Hatters keep scrapping like they did versus Manchester United (and others) they can certainly make it to the Year No. 2 in the Premier League.
Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (A), Villa (H), Palace (A), Bournemouth (A), Forest (H), Spurs (A), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Brentford (H), Wolves (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H)
Morris pulls one back for Luton Town v. Man United
Carlton Morris’ header beats Andre Onana and reduces Luton Town’s deficit to 2-1 against Manchester United in the first half at Kenilworth Road.
Crystal Palace (16th place, 24 points, 14 matches left)
Palace need Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze to find health. They’ve also missed Odsonne Edouard for a half-dozen games and Cheick Doucoure’s achilles injury has really hurt their chances of winning without their best attackers. Palace weren’t particularly strong with Doucoure — 4W-2D-5L — but they’re quite awful without him. 2W-4D-7L. There’s real danger here.
Remaining fixtures: Everton (A), Burnley (H), Spurs (A), Luton (H), Newcastle (H), Forest (A), Bournemouth (A), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), West Ham (H), Fulham (A), Man Utd (H), Wolves (A), Villa (H)
Nottingham Forest (15th place, 24 points, 13 matches left)
Forest have actually defended alright this year, and been victim of some serious xGA defying goals. They’ve conceded 44 times despite allowing 37.64 xGA, They’ve also been missing Taiwo Awoniyi for 10 games — he’s got six goals and two assists in under 1,000 minutes. If they shore up their set-piece defending — the Tricky Trees have allowed eight goals between the branches off corner kicks and six more off free kicks or free kick routines — Nuno Espirito Santo’s men may be fine.
Remaining fixtures: Villa (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (A), Luton (A), Palace (H), Fulham (H), Spurs (A), Wolves (H), Everton (A), Man City (H), Sheffield United (A), Chelsea (H), Burnley (A)
Just don’t fall apart and you’ll be fine
Brentford (14th place, 25 points, 14 matches left)
This really shouldn’t be an issue, especially with Bryan Mbeumo set to return and join Ivan Toney, Neal Maupay, and Co. in attack. Brentford rank third in the Premier League in big chances missed, according to fotmob. Missing Toney and Mbeumo for as long as they did and have is a part of that, and it’s a safe bet to assume more of those go into the goal with Toney and, soon, Mbeumo on the pitch. The Bees have also allowed six more goals than xGA. Like Everton, they’re better than this.
Remaining fixtures: Man City (A), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Burnley (A), Man Utd (H), Brighton (H), Villa (A), Sheffield United (H), Luton (A), Everton (A), Fulham (A), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H)