With the Super Bowl now a week old, it’s time to look ahead to next season.
One bet everyone loves to wager on is the NFL MVP award.
When you are thinking about who might win the award in 2024, consider these two criteria: quarterbacks who will finish with the best record in the league/ conference or guys capable of making history.
MVP has been won by the quarterback of the team with the one seed every year since 2015. The award has been won by a quarterback every season since 2012 when running back Adrian Peterson won it with 2097 yards, just nine yards short of the greatest rushing season in history.
So, who should we throw a couple of bucks on to win MVP next season?
Unfortunately, star players like Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey will usually come up short unless they do something historic. And young stud quarterbacks, like CJ Stroud, who’s on track for a monster sophomore season, will most likely miss out, too, because I don’t see the Texans finishing as the number one seed.
Here are three quarterbacks worth sprinkling money on to win the award now.
Patrick Mahomes: +650 (Bet $10 to win $75 total)
When it comes to your futures portfolio, you should always have a wager on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and Mahomes to win the MVP. Why? It’s simple. As long as he is healthy, you can never count out Kansas City. Mahomes is a two-time MVP winner and a three-time Super Bowl champion.
Mahomes was not in the running for the award this past season, with a receiving core that was one of the worst in the league. Even with all the drops and poor play, the signal caller finished sixth in passing yards and eighth in QBR and EPA.
The Chiefs are going to retool that receiving room with a draft heavy in WRs. Plus, I see them adding a free agent or two. Mahomes will have better numbers next season, and the Chiefs should once again contend for the number one seed in the AFC.
Dak Prescott: +1600 (Bet $10 to win $170 total)
Prescott finished second in MVP voting this past season, and I don’t see how the Cowboys quarterback will be worse in 2024. Prescott finished the 2023 regular season second in EPA and QBR, with 4,516 yards passing, which was good for third in the league. Prescott also led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 36.
Dallas’ offensive weapons are stacked with playmakers who will once again help Dak attain those lofty numbers. The Cowboys and Prescott could also benefit from instability and roster retooling around the NFC to help them claim the one seed.
What are the 49ers going to do this offseason after a deep playoff run that did not end with a Super Bowl? Roster depth and defensive coordinator are glaring issues.
The Eagles need some more talent on defense and have two new coordinators.
The Rams, Packers and Lions will be in the running for the playoffs, but are they better than Dallas?
The Cowboys with a one seed could happen, and if it does, Dak would be the MVP if the Cowboys get that bye going into Wild Card Weekend.
‘I don’t believe Brock Purdy is a Super Bowl-winning QB.’
Brock Purdy: +1600 (Bet $10 to win $170 total)
Purdy at +1600, while the 49ers are the early Super Bowl favorites at +550, is a good wager. If history holds, then this is a bet worth making.
The opening odds are telling you the 49ers are the favorites to win it all and the NFC. So, instead of taking the 49ers at +230 to win the NFC, just take Purdy at +1600 to win MVP.
I have my questions about San Francisco winning a Super Bowl, but it’s clear the team’s roster, quarterback and coaching are excellent. Unless injuries hit hard, look for them to run through the regular season as the one seed in the NFC.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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