Qatar ExxonMobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

This looks a tricky tournament to call.

For a start, most of the field are moving from the indoor conditions of Europe to outdoor ones in the Middle East, where they also compete in Dubai next week.

Then there’s the variable conditions of Doha to contend with. While the Plexicushion courts aren’t the quickest, the speed isn’t too sluggish in the heat of the day, but they tend to be considerably slower once the temperature drops in the evening.

Scheduling is tough for a punter to second-guess, although it’s fair to say the higher seeds are more likely to play at night with the marquee match usually scheduled third on the order of play.

They include tournament favourite Andrey Rublev, who certainly has the ability to claim this title – he’s the only top-15 player in the field.

A winner here in 2020 – the last time the event was held in its original early-January slot – Rublev is no bigger than 3/1 for a repeat four years on but I’m not particularly enthused.

He was beaten by Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam’s quarter-finals last week and generally isn’t a player I like to back as a favourite.

I don’t think he’s at his best right now and while I wouldn’t be surprised were he to lift the trophy next Saturday, I won’t be too regretful if he does.

There are plenty of other players who have shown some decent form in recent weeks but I’m reluctant to get with several of them.

Alexander Bublik is 8-3 so far in 2024 and won the title in Montpellier earlier this month.

However, the Kazakh has never won back-to-back matches in Doha or Dubai – seven visits in total – and I’d want more than 8/1 to support him this week.

Ugo Humbert is another recent champion – this column backed him at 12/1 when he won in Marseille – but, like Bublik, he’s stepping out of his favoured indoor conditions and the desert winds may well disrupt a serve which was in fine working order in the south of France.

Tallon Griekspoor, our 50/1 pick who made it to the Rotterdam semis, will also have his backers this week at 16/1.

However, last week would have been a hard one mentally, playing in front of his home fans, and it would be no surprise to find the Dutchman a little jaded.

I was tempted by a couple of old-timers, who have strong records in this event.

Roberto Bautista-Agut is a two-time champion (2022, 2019) and also made the final in 2021.

However, after making a decent start to his injury comeback in Hong Kong in the opening week of the season (made QFs), the Spaniard has really struggled for wins and while he’s clearly going to enjoy the conditions, I don’t see enough in his form to warrant backing him at 30/1.

I came close to giving Gael Monfils another chance given he’s 22/1 this week.

The Frenchman is another to have won the title her before, in 2018, and I’ve mentioned already this season about how history shows the best time to back him is in the opening two months of the year when his body is fresh – six of his last eight titles have come during that period of the season.

After beating Denis Shapovalov, he tested Jannik Sinner in Rotterdam last week, eventually going down in three sets, which is a sign he’s picking up after some disappointing early-season defeats.

He’s pretty well drawn – the seeds in his quarter are Humbert and Lorenzo Musetti – but I’ve had a few too many disappointments of late with Monfils so it’s to another 22/1 shot I’m turning.

ALEXANDER SHEVCHENKO is another player who has shown some decent form in the early weeks of the campaign.

The Kazakh has certainly enjoyed the recent indoor swing, making quarter-finals in Montpellier and Rotterdam.

A look into the details is encouraging. It took eventual champion Bublik (in a final set) to stop Shevchenko in Montpellier, while in Rotterdam Holger Rune was beaten before a narrow three-set loss to Grigor Dimitrov.

In between, there was an early exit in Marseille, although losing to top seed Hubert Hurkacz was hardly an awful result.

Maybe something similar will happen here – if he beats Richard Gasquet in round one, Shevchenko will meet Rublev.

However, that looks an awkward opener for the Russian. The pair are yet to meet.

A player on the up, Shevchenko looks ready to start winning some big matches and if he manages to do that against Rublev, the draw would really open up.

It’s not a tournament for big stakes but a small bet on Shevchenko at 22/1 looks worth a try.