The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but it’s already the final of the 2024 Australian Open. We’re going to be treated to some tremendous action in Melbourne Park, with Jannik Sinner facing Daniil Medvedev for the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. Sinner beat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, so he’s riding hot entering this match. But Medvedev is coming off a five-set win over Alexander Zverev, so it’s not like he’ll be lacking in confidence. That said, this should be a fun showdown Down Under. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with daily best bet write-ups for some of the biggest events of the year. That continues with the end of the 2024 Australian Open. Keep reading for my best bet for this massive match-up.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Record: 37-35 (+5.16 units)

If you took the advice I gave out in my 2024 Australian Open Betting Preview, you’re in great shape heading into this match. I suggested futures on both Sinner (+700) and Medvedev (+1100) to win this event, so a profit of +4.50 units should be guaranteed. However, I understand that not everybody is sitting in that position. So, for anybody looking to bet this match on its own, I’d strongly suggest taking Sinner to cover a 3.5-game spread. It’s a little juicy to make this bet, but I like it better than -4.5 at -130 odds.

The reality here is that Sinner is the better player under normal circumstances. The 22-year-old is far more dangerous from the baseline, and he has turned into an elite server and returner. That’s part of the reason Sinner has won three consecutive matches against Medvedev. But on top of all of that, Medvedev has gone through absolute hell to make this final. The Russian has been on the court for 20 hours and 37 minutes already. He has also played back-to-back grueling five-set matches, and a total of three five-setters in the tournament. Medvedev is a player that relies on his legs to outlast opponents with his world-class defense. So, if he’s even remotely fatigued, he won’t be able to put his best foot forward. That would be dooming against a player of Sinner’s caliber.

Sinner is also brimming with confidence right now, as he just beat Djokovic on one of the biggest stages in tennis. Djokovic really doesn’t lose at the Australian Open, so it was wild to see the Italian beat him down. And it doesn’t feel like the story ends here. Sinner has been due for a Grand Slam breakout for years now. I think this is it.

Lean: Sinner -3.5 Games (-160)

Tennis Links 

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis Odds

Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast