A glance at the Premier League table can be a near-useless activity during the early months of a season, but now it’s time to whip out the magnifying glass.
Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal have started to pull away from the rest, meaning the race for the top four seemingly has just one more seat to fill.
However, there still could be two Champions League spots up for grabs this year, with the Premier League in contention to gain an extra qualification place following the competition’s expansion from a 32- to a 36-team format from next season.
Simply, this would be more likely to happen if the English clubs progress as far as possible in the three European competitions this season, with City, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa all bidding to qualify for the quarter-finals of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
The permutations are complex (and further outlined in the link below), but the point remains — there are plenty of European spots still up for grabs when factoring in the three UEFA tournaments.
So, who is most likely to finish in those lucrative places? Let’s run the numbers…
Opta’s predicted league table makes a projection of the final standings by forecasting the outcome of each team’s remaining fixtures, based on the strength of the respective sides, before simulating the league season thousands of times to calculate an average of their potential finishes.
The varying performances of sides pushing for European spots can make such an undertaking… well, hard to predict, but Opta’s model suggests that things look most likely to stay as they are in the Premier League table — a trend that The Athletic previously analysed earlier in the season.
With Tottenham Hotspur likely to hold their fourth position ahead of Villa, who are predicted to retain fifth, the only predicted change in the current formation is Brighton rising from ninth to eighth, leapfrogging a West Ham side surely short of confidence after their recent 6-0 home demolition at the hands of Arsenal.
So much can change between now and the end of the season, so it’s worth looking at which of the aspiring teams have the trickiest fixtures coming up — bucketed into easy, medium and hard levels of difficulty depending on the strength of the opposition, using Opta Power Rankings.
Spurs do have a buffer on the chasing pack (given fifth could be enough for Champions League qualification and they are six points clear of sixth-placed Manchester United and have a far superior goal difference), but a tricky few weeks starting in the middle of April sees Ange Postecoglou’s side face Newcastle United, City, Arsenal and Liverpool in consecutive games.
Meanwhile, Newcastle have a chance to put the pressure on Manchester United, currently one place and five points above them, with a favourable fixture list that includes a trip to Old Trafford towards the end of April (which will be postponed if either or both advance from the FA Cup’s last 16 to play in its semi-finals that same weekend).
Let’s look at the clubs in the mix for Europe…
Tottenham Hotspur
Current position: Fourth
Predicted position: Fourth
After an injury-related stutter in November and early December, Tottenham have wrestled back control over their season with just one loss in their subsequent nine league games.
The intensity has returned to Postecoglou’s side, on the ball and off it — with their high pressing among the best in the division. Only Manchester City have won possession in the attacking third more than Spurs’ 157 occasions, with their six goal-ending regains being the most among the table’s top four sides.
Boosted by the returns of James Maddison, Son Heung-min, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma from either injury or international duty, Postecoglou will hope he can carry on with a full squad to continue to rotate and maintain the energy levels for that final push.
Throw in the recently-returned cheat code/world’s fastest man Micky Van de Ven at the back, and Spurs look as though they can fully implement the high-lined, aggressive style that earned them so many plaudits in the first part of the season.
Aside from that nasty-looking April, one pivotal fixture that could help them pull further away from their nearest challengers is the trip to Villa on March 10, where a win could help create a healthy lead over their fifth-placed hosts.
Otherwise, Tottenham have a chance to build some momentum between now and April. Both common sense and statistical analysis suggest fourth place is theirs to lose.
Aston Villa
Current position: Fifth
Predicted position: Fifth
The overriding feeling after Villa’s 2-1 loss to Manchester United on Sunday — their third home defeat in a row across all competitions — was that they lacked a clinical edge in front of goal.
“I am very proud of our work,” their head coach Unai Emery said after the game. “We have won a lot of matches at home creating fewer chances than today. The result was not good and we have to accept it. It’s frustrating for us. Some days we are going to be clinical, sometimes not — like tonight.”
Villa have been more clinical than not since Emery joined them in the October of last season — largely scoring above expectation across a 10-game rolling average.
There will always be variation from game to game, but Villa’s clinical edge does seem to be on the slide slightly when looking at the downward trend in recent weeks. Ollie Watkins is typically never too far from the goals, but his total of two in their past seven Premier League matches will need to be improved upon as Villa push for a second European campaign in a row.
Much like Spurs, they have an opportunity to put a run together, with three upcoming fixtures that Emery would expect to take maximum points from.
Meetings with each of the current top four over the remainder of the season might not only be crucial to Villa’s own final league position but could have a say in where the Premier League trophy ends up.
A serious injury to midfielder Boubacar Kamara in that match against United has not helped their outlook, nor a subsequent hamstring issue in training for centre-back Diego Carlos, though the imminent returns of Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa will help strengthen a defensive unit that has looked a little shaky in recent weeks.
As stated earlier their predicted finish of fifth could mean Champions League football next season, which would be an incredible return from Emery’s first full season in charge.
Manchester United
Current position: Sixth
Predicted position: Sixth
It might be too little too late for United to stake a claim for a higher league position than the one they have, but that victory over Villa last weekend has closed the gap — and they are gathering momentum.
Their present run of three Premier League wins in a row has come at exactly the right time — it’s just the second time they have managed that all season — and manager Erik ten Hag looks to have an increasingly settled side to call upon for the final weeks of the season.
Recent injuries to key defenders Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw have been setbacks, but these three victories have all come via a settled midfield of Kobbie Mainoo, Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes and a forward line of Alejandro Garnacho, Marcus Rashford and the in-form Rasmus Hojlund.
Where previously Ten Hag was making three to four changes to his starting line-up in the first half of the season, recent weeks have largely seen him make just one to an otherwise settled team.
An away Manchester derby and an Old Trafford meeting with Liverpool are the pick of the upcoming fixtures for United. If they are going to make up further ground on Villa, they will need to continue this present momentum.
It would be wise not to leave that final push until the final couple of weeks, with tricky games at home against Arsenal and away to Brighton to finish. Crucially, United must not let their season peter out.
“We are in a good mood and we have to keep this process going but there is so much space for improvement,” Ten Hag said after the win against Villa. “There are many games left to play and we’ll see what happens.”
Newcastle United
Current position: Seventh
Predicted position: Seventh
One criticism that cannot be directed at this Newcastle team is that they are boring to watch. Across their five Premier League matches so far in 2024, fans have seen an average of 5.6 goals — reminiscent of Kevin Keegan’s ‘Entertainers’ side of the 1990s.
Does their current boss Eddie Howe have cause for concern that, like Keegan’s boys, his side are not locking down their defence? Put simply — yes.
Newcastle had the best defensive record in the league, alongside title-winning Manchester City, last season, conceding fewer than one goal per game (33 in 38). This season, their average of 1.6 goals against is the same as in Howe predecessor Steve Bruce’s final full season in 2020-21 and their transitional 2021-22 — both of which ended in bottom-half finishes.
A glance at their non-penalty expected goals for and against across a 10-game rolling average in this next chart makes for stark viewing — Newcastle’s chance concession has rocketed to levels that have not been seen for more than three seasons.
Aside from a trip to Arsenal next weekend, Newcastle’s schedule sees them face a smattering of clubs who are hovering around mid-table or facing relegation — it’s not necessarily an easy run-in, but it’s one that Howe would see as a positive with Tottenham the only other top-four team left for them to play.
In a season laden with injuries and fixture congestion, there are extenuating circumstances for Newcastle’s poorer return in the league compared to 2022-23 — but if they were offered a seventh-place finish and a potential Europa Conference League spot today, you’d imagine Howe would shake on that.
West Ham United
Current position: Eighth
Predicted position: Ninth
Following their sobering 6-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Sunday, West Ham feel like the odd ones out in this analysis.
But against a backdrop of mass dissatisfaction, along with bitterness towards a defensive style of play, David Moyes has his team well on course for a third top-half finish in four seasons, while Opta gives them a healthy chance of sneaking into the Conference League — the competition they won seven months ago.
West Ham are now winless in seven in all competitions and sorely missing the creative spark of the injured Lucas Paqueta in midfield, but fan frustrations precede this dreary run.
Only Nottingham Forest have won the ball less often in the attacking third during this Premier League season, their average field tilt of 35.9 per cent is the worst in the division and no team creates a higher proportion of their chances from free kicks. They neither press high, control territory or create from open play. Their biggest results this season have been largely smash and grab, with four of the season’s 10 lowest-possession wins belonging to Moyes’ side.
It is not all doom and gloom for West Ham, with four winnable games on the horizon, even if taking the initiative is not their thing. The Europa League returns either side of that Burnley game — a big win or two before that would keep things ticking over before the schedule takes a turn.
Having the ball isn’t the only way to control a game, and Moyes will be happy to keep on winning his own way if it ensures another European adventure.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Current position: Ninth
Predicted position: Eighth
Brighton are keeping a few plates spinning this season; a thrilling, first-ever taste of European competition, a strong run to the last 16 of the FA Cup and another exhausting battle to keep up with the big boys at the top of the Premier League.
Venturing into such uncharted territory has led to a collection of freak results — a crushing 4-0 defeat at Luton Town sandwiched between four- and five-goal wins a recent example of their fluctuating form — but the squad is brimming with the kind of tactical flexibility and technical ability that gives them a chance in any game.
Coach Roberto De Zerbi is relentlessly inventive in his team selection, averaging 4.6 changes to the starting line-up across the season, but the schedule has thinned out slightly in recent weeks: while the Europa League play-offs take place and they wait to learn their round of 16 opponents, Brighton should be full-focus on the league, with an FA Cup trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers the only midweek assignment in February.
“We are a very good team, but we are not a top, top team yet,” grumbled De Zerbi after a frustrating 1-1 home draw with Burnley in early December, “because a top team wins today, wins against Sheffield United (another 1-1 in November) and Fulham (the same result in October).”
Fortunately, they have an opportunity to make amends against two of those teams before Europe comes calling again, while Sean Dyche’s Everton have been a slight bogey team following their 5-1 win at the Amex last season. These next four games are fixtures to test the mettle, but De Zerbi will be aiming for at least 10 points from them.
A tricky-looking run-in leaves their top-six hopes in the balance, especially if they get to the Europa League semi-finals, but Brighton will be desperate to do all these competitions — the rotation, the exasperation, the relentless, thick-and-fast schedule — all over again next season.
Current position: 10th
Predicted position: 10th
For Chelsea, this season feels like an exercise in taking the positives where you can.
Here’s one: their 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace on Monday made it 11 points earned from the 15 times they have been in losing positions this season — better than the whole of last season’s eight points from the 20 times where they went behind.
Sure, we can talk about Chelsea’s profligacy in front of goal, and how often they have spurned chances with some wasteful finishing from Nicolas Jackson, Raheem Sterling and their other forwards. But the issues lie further back down the pitch, with Chelsea seemingly unable to make the most of promising opportunities in the first place. Before we think about chance conversion, we need to think about the runs that are not made, the passes that are not executed, and the shots that are not taken.
Looking across multiple seasons, Chelsea are trending downwards in the share of possession sequences that end in a shot. They have some good build-up play, but have often been blunt at the top end.
The next few weeks are an opportunity to take further positives in a transitional season under first-year head coach Mauricio Pochettino, with games against Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle and Arsenal in the next five.
Opta’s model gives Chelsea an outside chance of pushing for a final position between sixth and eighth, but the likelihood is that another mid-table finish is on the cards.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Current position: 11th
Predicted position: 11th
Wolves are only outsiders for a European spot this season, but new coach Gary O’Neil has turned them into a team who relish a challenge since replacing Julen Lopetegui just days before the opening game in August.
Having already beaten City and Spurs at Molineux, before sealing an emphatic league double over Chelsea at the start of this month, they are a well-drilled side who can strike potently on the break, very capable of punishing opponents’ wasteful finishing with a newfound clinical edge of their own.
After scoring around 7.0 goals fewer than the quality of their shooting opportunities suggested they should have last season, they have now tucked away 2.7 more. Adjusting those numbers to a 10-game rolling average, and the extent of their troubles towards the end of the Bruno Lage era become clear.
At the top of the current team, both Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha have thrived in their transitional roles, elusive dribblers who have helped Wolves to a league-leading 23 shots from fast breaks. Hwang Hee-chan, who is back from Asian Cup duty, is another — only Liverpool’s Diogo Jota and South Korean countryman Son of Tottenham have overperformed their expected goals tally by more.
Their rematch tomorrow (Saturday) with Tottenham could set the tone for a quiet European charge, while a tough end to the season, facing all of the current top three in the last five games, brings a familiar conclusion — this being the third time in six years they have played Liverpool on the Premier League campaign’s final Sunday.
Even if they can’t mount a convincing challenge themselves, Wolves will surely have their say.
Yes, the final few weeks will be gruelling for the players, but spare a thought for the fans who will be staring at the Premier League table, trying to work out the calculations and the permutations of their side’s European hopes.
For some, they will also have the celebrations to go with it come the end of the season.
(Photos: Getty Images)