Damian Lillard (+370)

Will Dame Time strike twice?

Damian Lillard is the reigning 3-Point Contest champion as well as the favorite to repeat at +400.

Lillard scored 26 points in both rounds in 2023, and that was despite basically running out of time on his final rack during the first round. As the reigning champion and arguably one of the best 3-point shooters of all-time, Lillard is a deserving favorite to repeat on Friday.

But I’m not sure if he deserves to be this much of a favorite. In his first season with the Milwaukee Bucks, Lillard is having a down year in just about every category, including 3-point shooting.

Lillard is shooting just 34.4% on treys this season, on fewer and more open looks than in his recent stretch in Portland. While the Weber State grad can blow the rest of the field out of the water on his best days, at 33 his best days are rarer than they used to be.

Tyrese Haliburton (+440)

Tyrese Haliburton is both this NBA season’s breakout star and an intriguing option at +450.

Haliburton is one of the most deadly and prolific 3-point shooters in the Association, taking 7.9 per game and hitting a clean 40% of them.

This will be the second time the Indiana Pacers star has participated in the 3-Point Contest, having lost to Lillard in the final round last year.

While there were some concerns that Tyrese’s unique shooting form would slow him down during the contest, Haliburton finished the first round with 31 points and had time to slow down and space out each shot of his final rack where he placed his money balls.

But Hali struggled in the final round against Lillard and Buddy Hield, scoring just 17. 

Trae Young (+550)

Trae Young — once considered the next generation’s version of Steph Curry — also sits among the on-paper favorites. 

While Trae has been celebrated as a legit star player, he’s little like Steph at all aside from his willingness to take incredibly deep threes. Young has never shot 40% from three, and this season is shooting 37.1%.

Still, he has range that perhaps nobody other than Lillard in this field can match, and he’s a high-volume shooter at nine attempts per game for the Atlanta Hawks. It’s possible Young’s combination of volume and range allows him to advance, or even win the contest outright.

Malik Beasley (+600)

Malik Beasley comes into Friday’s contest as the participant with the highest 3-point percentage at 44.9% this season. The 27-year-old is having a comeback year as the starting shooting guard for the Bucks, playing beside contest favorite Lillard.

It’s Beasley’s first time in the contest, and I am a bit worried both about how much arc he puts on the ball and the height he generates on his shots. While those things make him a lethal shooter during live-game action, I’m less convinced they translate to success during the 3-point contest.

Karl-Anthony Towns (+700)

The self-proclaimed “best shooting big man of all-time” didn’t get a chance to defend his 3-point shooting throne last season, but comes in as a strong contender on Saturday.

Karl-Anthony Towns is shooting a career-best 43.6% for the top-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves this season, a return to form after an injury-plagued 2022-23.

During his 2022 victory, Towns scored 22 points in round one, missing both deep three balls. In the final round, he scored 29 points, including one of the deep balls and going 4-5 on his moneyball rack.

In KAT’s victorious final round, he hit 28 of a potential 40 attempts. That’s the highest percentage of makes since the current format was adopted in 2019-20.

NBA 3-Point Contest pick

Towns was a +1,200 longshot when he won in 2022, and while a KAT win won’t be quite as profitable this time around, I still believe he’s the man to beat.

There are a few factors to consider when picking a 3-point contest winner outside of raw 3-point shooting percentage and volume. 

The biggest thing to me is how a given player shoots. For instance, players who have a slow release are going to get sped up during the contest or fail to complete their run. Those who jump high on their shots (as many guards do) are prone to use too much energy or run out of time before completing their racks.

This is why Towns has a real edge. He shoots what basically amounts to a set shot, barely leaving his feet at all. That makes his shot smooth, repeatable, quick, and with minimum energy required. That gives him an advantage against jump shooters like Haliburton, Lillard, and Beasley who use their leg muscles much more when getting into each shot.

For the same reasons I bet on KAT to win in 2022 as a massive underdog, I still believe he’s the best value to take Saturday’s contest.

Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns (+700 at FanDuel)

Past 3-Point Contest Winners

Players who have won multiple 3-Point Contests

Larry Bird added to his legacy by winning the first three 3-Point Contests from 1986 to 1988 before retiring from the event with nothing left to prove. A master of the mental arts, the “Hick from French Lick” famously psyched out his opponents in his final 3-point shootout by walking into the locker room and causally asking, “Who’s coming in second?” The answer, as it turns out, was Seattle’s Dale Ellis, who could only watch in awe as Bird cooly eliminated him in the final round while still wearing his warmup jacket.

3-Point Contest trends

• Dirk Nowitzki (2006) and Karl-Anthony Towns (2022) are the only 7-footers to win the contest.
• No one has won the contest in back-to-back years since 2008.
• No one has won the contest on their own home court.

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