If there’s ever a moment to schedule a back-to-back, it’s now, the night before a week off. Congratulations, NBA, you got one kind of right. Then again, this is the Golden State Warriors’ 11th back-to-back this season. Consider that, more than a fifth of the Warriors’ games this season have come on no rest.

The same can all be said of the Utah Jazz. After tonight, 17.9% of their games will have come on no rest.

While that is a consistent gripe of the NBA’s scheduling priorities, it also complicates any preview of the NBA odds. It may come down to motivation as much as anything else, two teams on the verge of a week off and both already tired. What veteran can be trusted to perform in that moment?

One name comes to mind before any other in our free NBA picks as we preview Warriors vs. Jazz on Thursday, February 15.

Warriors vs Jazz odds

Warriors vs Jazz predictions

The motivation worry here is not one to dismiss. Look at last night’s results.

The Hawks were down just six at halftime at Charlotte, and then they lost the second half by 17 points. The Nets lost by 50 in Boston. These same Jazz lost by 16 at home to the Lakers thanks to a 15-point deficit incurred in the third quarter alone.

Those things happen every night — well, maybe the Hornets don’t ever blow someone out — but for them all to happen last night emphasized the allure of the beach.

The Utah Jazz failed worst last night in defending the 3-pointer, Los Angeles going 14-of-31 from deep, a 45.2% clip. Across their previous 10 games, the Lakers had shot 40.6% from deep on 31.8 attempts per game.

Arguing against the Jazz because of one or two Rui Hachimura 3-pointers last night would be foolish. The thing is, this has been a common Utah failure of late. In their last 10 games, the Jazz rank exactly in the middle of the pack in the rate of threes forced, 38.3% of opposing shots coming from deep, ranking No. 15 in the NBA, but they rank last in opposing 3-point shooting percentage at 42.3%.

If there is any one player not to give open looks to, it is Stephen Curry, obviously. Even more pertinent, it is Steph Curry this week.

The best shooter of all time found a record he had not yet set this week, becoming the first player in NBA history to hit at least seven threes in four straight games, going 36-for-67 over that span.

Shooting 53.7% on 16.75 threes per game defies comprehension. Maybe Curry is just getting ready for his Saturday night shooting contest against Sabrina Ionescu. More likely, Curry has found his groove.

He has made at least six threes in eight of his last 11 games. This surge has not been entirely confined to this last week.

Against Utah, Curry should get open looks. And being Steph Curry, he’ll make them.

My best bet: Steph Curry Over 5.5 made 3s (+104 at FanDuel)

Warriors vs Jazz same-game parlay

This is rather simple, no? If betting Curry will have at least 18 points from deep, adding him to score 30 in total is not much of a reach.

There is some value to it. On Monday, he hit seven threes but scored just 25 total points. That needle can be threaded. The SGP payout accounts for that, even if it’s entirely unlikely.

This game might hold some extra weight for the Golden State Warriors. The play-in tournament keeps teams like the Warriors more than alive right now, and as a Timberwolves fan, let’s be very clear: The fear of facing Golden State in the first round costs some nights of sleep around here.

If the Warriors win tonight, they will enter the break up 2.5 games on the Jazz for the final play-in spot. That is not an insurmountable gap with 26-29 games remaining, but it’s a sizable one, especially with Utah dropping off of late.

Steve Kerr will be keenly aware of this. Curry and Draymond Green will be, too. Their championship pedigree should insist on a win, perhaps a comfortable one.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened on Wednesday afternoon with the Warriors as 1-point underdogs before jumping the fence to favoring Golden State by one as last night’s games ended.

Chalk some of that up to the Warriors letting one slip away against the Clippers and wanting to rectify that mistake. Chalk some of it up to the Jazz no-showing late against the Lakers and probably continuing their slide.

For what it is worth, Golden State has gone 5-4-1 against the spread on the second nights of its back-to-backs this season, with one of those losses coming as an underdog in overtime, so a 6-4-1 thought would be a bit more accurate in spirit.

Utah has gone 5-4 ATS on the second night of its back-to-backs.

This total opened at 238.5 and inched up to 239.5 on Thursday morning, not enough of a move to put too much thought into, but one that supports the likelihood of Steph Curry continuing his hot shooting.

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Warriors vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Warriors have covered in five straight games against the Jazz. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Jazz.

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