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Just when we were finally getting over the New England Patriots’ dynasty, a new one has taken its place.
With their 25-22 victory in Super Bowl 58, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have won three of the last five NFL championships. That puts them in the exclusive company of the 1974-78 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1992-95 Dallas Cowboys and the 2001-04 and 2014-18 Patriots as the only teams in league history to win a trio of Super Bowls in a five-year span.
And in the two seasons (2020 and 2021) the Chiefs didn’t hoist the Lombardi Trophy, they still ended their year in the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship Game, respectively.
In other words, welcome to the K.C. Dynasty.
But will the Chiefs’ reign extend into 2024-25? Below we examine the early AFC title odds for the upcoming season and look at the prospects of another conference contender denying Mahomes and Co. a shot at the NFL’s first Super Bowl three-peat.
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2024-25 AFC title odds: Kansas City Chiefs (best odds: +400)
Since Mahomes became Kansas City’s starter in 2018, the Chiefs have played in the AFC title game each season, winning four of the six. And the outlook for the rest of the league only gets even worse from there as the three-time Super Bowl MVP will still only be 29 as of September.
Meanwhile, Andy Reid, who turns 66 in March, looks like he’ll be back for his 26th season as an NFL head coach.
So if the Chiefs can find a way to retain free agent All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones and shore up a wide receiver corps that was sub-optimal for most of the season, they’ll remain the AFC’s — and NFL’s — team to beat.
2024-25 AFC title odds: Baltimore Ravens (+550)
Baltimore missed out on a golden opportunity this past season to end its 10-season Super Bowl drought as league MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lost at home to the Chiefs in the AFC title game after finishing with the league’s best regular season record at 13-4.
Jackson is still only 27 but the Ravens have some serious work to do this offseason with 22 players set to enter unrestricted free agency.
And repeating as AFC North champs is going to be a chore in itself as all four teams in the division finished with winning records in 2023 — and that was with Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow missing the final seven games with a wrist injury.
2024-25 AFC title odds: Buffalo Bills (+600)
The perennial-contending Bills have won four straight AFC East titles and qualified for the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons, but they’ve only made it as far as the AFC Championship only once during that span.
In the process, it’s become clear that dual-threat QB Josh Allen needs more help.
However, managing that is going to be tricky as Buffalo enters the offseason more than $50 million over the projected salary cap.
2024-25 AFC title odds: Cincinnati Bengals (+700)
The Bengals are the only team who has disrupted the Chiefs’ conference dominance over the last five seasons, outdueling Mahomes and Co. in overtime to win the 2021 AFC Championship Game.
But with Burrow lost for the season in Week 11 this past November, the two-time-defending AFC North champs finished 9-8 and were the only team in the division to miss the playoffs.
The Bengals face some key offseason decisions with DT D.J. Reader and WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd set to hit free agency, but Cincy does have some money to work with sitting a projected $50 million-plus under the 2024 salary cap.
2024-25 AFC title odds: Best of the rest of the field
The four teams above are the only AFC squads with consensus conference title odds higher than 10-1.
Here’s are some quick thoughts on a few of the AFC title long shots:
- Miami Dolphins (+1100): The Dolphins have constructed one of the league’s most-point offenses behind QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Tyreek Hill, but this is a franchise that now owns the league’s longest drought (23 seasons) without a postseason win.
- Houston Texans (+1200): A definite team to keep an eye on as the Texans jumped from a 3-13-1 finish in 2022 to the AFC South title at 10-7 and a wild-card playoff win behind league rookie of the year winners QB C.J. Stroud and DE/LB Will Anderson Jr.
- New York Jets (+1600): Gang Green is more than eager to get QB Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a brutally untimely Achilles tear four plays into his N.Y. debut season, but is he still capable to carrying a woebegone franchise to the Super Bowl at age 40?
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1600): The Chiefs’ biggest threat just may come from its own division as new coach and proven winner Jim Harbaugh pairs with talented QB Justin Herbert to try to lift the under-performing Bolts.
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