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The Kansas City Chiefs have hoisted another Lombardi Trophy, and they aren’t shying away from talk of the NFL’s first three-peat, while the San Francisco 49ers are left to another offseason of stewing about what might have been.
Summoning the physical and mental fortitude it will take to go through the grind of another season and postseason and return to the big game could certainly prove a monumental task for each club for different reasons.
With early projected 2024 win totals already available at the best online sportsbooks, we will break down those of the Super Bowl LVIII participants from an early offseason perspective.
The Chiefs looked like a wild-card team at best for stretches of the 2023 regular season as they adjusted to life without departed offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and also tried to manage an offense that was woefully thin at receiver.
Nevertheless, KC managed to get itself to 11-6 and the AFC West crown, then saw Patrick Mahomes prove his postseason road mettle for the first time in his career with memorable wins over the Bills and Ravens.
Given what we’ve now seen this group accomplish and the fact both coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce confirmed 2024 returns, there’s little reason to doubt their ability to go all the way yet again, let alone reprise an 11-win season.
Re-signing pass rusher Chris Jones will naturally be critical, and other key defensive pieces Drue Tranquill and L’Jarius Sneed are also set to hit the open market. Assuming some shrewd maneuvering on the part of the front office on that front, the other priority for KC this offseason figures to be the restocking of the wide receiver room to build around Rashee Rice, who already had the makings of a No. 1 receiver as a rookie.
It goes without saying that Mahomes’ health will be the key that unlocks the Chiefs’ ceiling, as is the case each year. However, a well-orchestrated free-agent period and draft that sees the team enhance its offensive firepower a few notches would all but guarantee the Over on this total, even with the Ravens, Bills and 49ers all on next season’s schedule.
Given the front office’s impressive track record, it’s a bet worth making now.
Oddsmakers still have plenty of faith in the 49ers’ front-office brass, coaching staff and roster if this win total is any indication.
Despite San Francisco’s constant stumbles in the postseason, the team did amass a combined 25 regular-season wins during the 2022-2023 campaigns.
Notably, the 13 victories in 2022 were amassed with Brock Purdy either on the bench or learning on the job as a rookie seventh-rounder and Christian McCaffrey either not yet on the roster or still acclimating to the team’s offense.
That dynamic duo has now had a full season together and are locked in for 2024, as are WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle. The 49ers were already working with more raw talent offensively this past season than the Chiefs, so their potential offseason shopping list is actually less extensive on that side of the ball than Kansas City’s.
Adding at least one more dynamic pass catcher could be what finally puts the Niners over the top, considering there are no major pending free agents on offense. On the other side of the ball, the biggest priority is Chase Young, who was acquired via trade mid-season and showed enough to potentially be brought back on a deal palatable to both sides.
The defense will be scrutinized going into next season given the firing of coordinator Steve Wilks, but the unit is clearly already Super Bowl-caliber and figures to get some quality reinforcements via the draft and free agency.
San Francisco should still have a strong chance of being the class of the NFC West, but a tough out-of-division schedule that includes dates against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Bills and Dolphins – the latter three on the road – could make getting to 12 wins again an uphill battle.
Even with what should once again be one of the league’s most talented rosters, a record of 12-5 or better is quite the challenge in today’s NFL, especially for a team that’s played as many games as the Niners have over the last several years.
The Under on 11.5 wins is therefore the way I’d lean, and it wouldn’t surprise to see San Fran fall just short at 11.
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