Home » 49ers Super Bowl, NFC and playoff odds for 2024-25: Will San Francisco avoid the NFL runner-up hangover?

49ers Super Bowl, NFC and playoff odds for 2024-25: Will San Francisco avoid the NFL runner-up hangover?

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49ers Super Bowl, NFC and playoff odds for 2024-25: Will San Francisco avoid the NFL runner-up hangover?

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February 16, 2024February 12, 2023

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The San Francisco 49ers may not have won a Super Bowl over the last five seasons, but they’re for real as an elite contender, having compiled the league’s fourth-best winning percentage (.653) over that span while making it to at least the NFC Championship Game four times.

But the Super Bowl loser’s curse/hangover also is for real as only one of the most recent 30 runners-up has made it back to the Big Game the following season.

Below we delve into the not-so-pretty Super Bowl hangover numbers, preview the outlook for the 2024-25 49ers and examine their odds of returning to the playoffs, defending their NFC title and winning Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.

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49ers 2024-25 futures odds: Super Bowl loser hangovers have been hard to avoid

The 2018 New England Patriots have been the only team over the last 30 seasons to return to the Super Bowl the season after coming up short in the Big Game. And it was a successful return at that as Tom Brady’s Pats beat the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl 53.

As for the 29 Super Bowl runners-up during that span, here’s how things played out the ensuing season:

  • 12 teams missed the playoffs entirely with 10 of those squads finishing with losing records. The most recent of this group was the 2020 49ers who finished 6-10 the season after falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54.
  • Another seven made it back to the postseason but were one-and-done, losing their first playoff game. (Most recent: 2023 Philadelphia Eagles)
  • Six others posted a wild-card playoff win but fell the next week in the divisional round. (Most recent: 2017 Atlanta Falcons)
  • And the remaining four teams made it back to the conference championship game before losing and falling just short of returning to the Super stage. (Most recent: 2022 Cincinnati Bengals)

49ers to make 2024-25 playoffs: Yes -550, No +425

While 12 of the last 30 Super Bowl runners-up went on to miss the postseason the ensuing year, it’s only happened three times in the last 15 seasons.

As aforementioned, coach Kyle Shanahan’s 2020 Niners were the most recent team to do so as they battled a slew of quarterback and other key injuries while tumbling from first to worst in the four-team NFC West.

Quarterback Brock Purdy just finished his second season at the 49ers’ helm last fall and he’ll have all his top weapons back, including running back Christian McCaffrey, the league’s 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, and leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

There are some age (All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams turns 36 this summer), injury (linebacker Dre Greenlaw ruptured an Achilles the Super Bowl) and free agent (defenders Tashaun Gibson, Chase Young and Javon Kinlaw) question marks for the Niners.

And San Francisco also will be looking for a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was fired days after the team’s 25-22 overtime loss to Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs.

But San Francisco was the NFC’s top seed at 12-5 and boasted a league-most nine Pro Bowl selections, so it’s tough to envision a scenario where the Niners don’t claim one of the conference’s seven playoff spots in 2024-25, barring a Purdy season-ending injury early in the campaign.

49ers 2024-25 NFC championship odds: +225 best

While the Chiefs (twice), Patriots (twice) and Denver Broncos have all accomplished the feat in the AFC over the last 26 seasons, the NFC has featured only one back-to-back champ (the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks) during that same span.

The 2013 Seahawks, incidentally, beat coach Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in the NFC title game a season after San Francisco lost to the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl 47.

And as talented as the 2024-25 Niners look on paper, defending their NFC title will be a tough ask.

Five other NFC teams have opened with +1400 or better conference odds, including the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers — both of whom held second-half leads over the 49ers in this season’s NFC playoffs — and the division-rival Los Angeles Rams.

49ers 2024-25 Super Bowl 59 odds: +550

The Niners head the quartet of teams with early 10-1 or better odds to win the next Big Game.

It’s surprising that San Francisco (consensus sportsbook odds of +550) has opened ahead of Kansas City (+640), which has played in four of the last five Super Bowls, winning three of them. The Chiefs can notch the first Super Bowl three-peat with a victory in the Big Easy next February.

The Baltimore Ravens (+900), Buffalo Bills (+1000) and Lions (+1200) round out the top five. In all, six of the top eight teams on the consensus Super Bowl 59 odds board hail from the AFC.

But as the favorite for the second straight season, the pressure is definitely on Shanahan, who is now 0-3 in the Big Game as a head coach or offensive coordinator (2016 Falcons).