The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but it’s already the final of the 2024 Australian Open. We’re going to be treated to some tremendous action in Melbourne Park, with Qinwen Zheng facing Aryna Sabalenka for the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup. Sabalenka won this tournament last year, but she’s looking for back-to-back wins here. Meanwhile, this is the furthest Zheng has ever been at a major, but she has a big game. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with daily best bet write-ups for some of the biggest events of the year. That continues with the end of the 2024 Australian Open. Keep reading for my best bet for this massive match-up.

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2024 Record: 36-34 (+4.66 units)

Sabalenka got revenge for her loss to Coco Gauff in the 2023 US Open final, clinching a 7-6 (2), 6-4 victory over the American in the semifinals of this event. Initially, Sabalenka relinquished a 5-2 lead in the first set, sparking fears of a repeat of her collapse in New York. But the resilient 25-year-old managed to regain composure and seize the opening set. And she never folded in the face of pressure in the second. Sabalenka wasn’t broken once in that set, flashing her new-and-improved service game. With her eyes set on consecutive Australian Open titles, Sabalenka appears primed for a victory. The problem is that the odds heavily favor Sabalenka, so betting opportunities for the Belarusian are scarce. That said, I’m taking a stab at backing Zheng instead.

Zheng has a unique blend of power and athleticism, and she oozes talent that others dream of having. However, her journey to the final has been fraught with challenges, as she has endured three grueling three-set matches. Zheng has also faced some very easy competition on her way here, so that’s a little unsettling. Ultimately, her form hasn’t been where you want it to be, which is why it’s hard to envision her winning this match outright. But it’d still be surprising if Zheng doesn’t secure at least eight games, and DraftKings Sportsbook has her total at 7.5.

Sabalenka previously defeated Zheng 6-1, 6-4 at the 2023 US Open quarterfinals, so the Belarusian has taken advantage of this match-up on a big stage. But Zheng was unprepared at that point in her career, and she has only gained experience since then. Nevertheless, Zheng appears better equipped this time, possessing the firepower to hold her own against Sabalenka’s from the baseline. As long as she’s serving well, Zheng can do a decent job of racking up games. And she’ll get a few extra because of Sabalenka’s lapses in focus and composure.

I just don’t see Sabalenka lifting another Australian Open title without some hiccups somewhere along the way. So, I like Zheng to win a decent number of games. It also wouldn’t be shocking if she forces a decider.

Bet: Zheng Over 7.5 Games (-130)

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